The most expensive opinion in your company isn’t wrong because it’s uninformed. It is expensive because it is untested.
Picture a scene that plays out in conference rooms every day. A team is gathered around a screen, debating two versions of a new homepage.
The lead designer loves the “clean, modern” look of Version A. The marketing manager argues that Version B has better copy. The debate circles for twenty minutes, fueled by personal taste and ego.
Finally, the CEO—who has been silent until now—points at the screen. “I like the blue one,” she says. “It feels more confident. Let’s go with that.”
The debate ends. The decision is made. The “blue one” launches.
And three months later, sales have dropped 15%.
This is the HiPPO Problem. The acronym stands for the Highest-Paid Person’s Opinion.
In the absence of data, the HiPPO becomes the truth. It is confident, decisive, and often disastrously wrong. If you want to fix your conversion rate, you have to stop listening to the HiPPO and start listening to the only opinion that actually matters: your customer’s behavior.
The Illusion of Expertise
We all like to believe we understand our customers. We’ve read the books, we know the product, and we have “industry experience.”
But here is the brutal truth: You are not your customer.
You know too much. You suffer from the “curse of knowledge.” You know how the product works, so you assume the navigation is intuitive. You know the value, so you assume the headline makes sense.
Your “intuitive sense” is contaminated by your own biases. When the team in that conference room debates Version A vs. Version B, they aren’t debating what’s best for the user; they are debating what they like.
They are running a casino, placing expensive bets on the roulette wheel of their own assumptions.
The Backward Bicycle: Why “Creative” Ideas Fail
The HiPPO often favors “creative” or “disruptive” designs because they look impressive in a boardroom presentation. But on the web, creativity is often the enemy of conversion.
Imagine someone hands you a bicycle. It looks normal, but it has been engineered so that when you turn the handlebars left, the wheel goes right.
Could you ride it? No. You would fall over instantly. Your brain fights its own muscle memory.
When a designer decides to hide the navigation menu behind a tiny dot in the bottom corner because it looks “minimalist,” they are handing your user a backward bicycle.
Your users have spent years learning how the web works. They expect the logo in the top left. They expect the cart in the top right.
Conventions are the “muscle memory” of the internet. When you break them to be unique, you create friction. And friction kills sales.
[Related: O – Obvious Action: The Principle of Least Effort]
The Taste Test Methodology (A/B Testing)
So, how do you defeat the HiPPO? You don’t argue. You measure.
You replace “I think” with “I know.” You use A/B testing.
Don’t let the technical term scare you. An A/B test is nothing more than a digital taste test.
Think of how Coca-Cola tests a new flavor. They don’t just ask executives. They go to a supermarket, set up a stand, and offer two unmarked cups to thousands of shoppers.
- Cup A: The classic formula.
- Cup B: The new formula.
They don’t ask for opinions on the branding. They just watch which cup the shopper drinks. They count the empty cups.
A/B testing is the exact same process for your website.
- Version A (Control): Your current headline.
- Version B (Variation): A new headline focused on a specific benefit.
You use software (like VWO or Optimizely) to split your traffic 50/50. The users don’t know they are being tested. They simply vote with their clicks.
If Version B gets 20% more clicks, the debate is over. The HiPPO didn’t decide. The audience decided.
The Uncomfortable Art of Being Wrong
Adopting a testing culture is hard because it requires checking your ego at the door. You have to be willing to be wrong.
In my book, Decoding The Click, I tell the story of a CEO who pushed hard for a massive redesign of his company’s homepage. It was his baby. He invested months of budget into it.
His marketing head convinced him to run an A/B test against the old, “ugly” site before launching it to 100% of traffic.
The results came back: The CEO’s beautiful new design performed 30% worse.
In a culture of opinion, this would be a failure. In a culture of testing, the CEO stood up and said: “This test is the best thing that happened to us this quarter. It just saved us millions in lost revenue.”
A losing test is not a failure; it is a bullet dodged. It is a lesson learned without paying the full price.
From Guesswork to Growth Engine
This is the Testing principle of the C.O.N.V.E.R.T. Method.
When you stop guessing, you start building a flywheel of continuous improvement.
- You test a headline. You get a 5% lift.
- You test a button color. You get a 2% lift.
- You test a guarantee. You get a 10% lift.
These small wins compound. Over a year, they turn a flat-lining business into a market leader.
You don’t need to be a data scientist to start. You just need to be curious enough to ask, “I wonder if…” and disciplined enough to let the data answer.
Your Next Step: You know how to test, but what should you test? You can’t test everything. You need to find the elements that build trust. Read the next article: Not All Testimonials Are Created Equal: The Anatomy of Social Proof That Sells.
Testing is the final reality check of the C.O.N.V.E.R.T. Method. For the complete “Optimizer’s Toolkit,” including sample size calculators and test design frameworks to ensure your data is accurate, get your copy of Decoding The Click.
